Super Two Projection at the 2/3 Pole

Through Monday, the season in 2/3 over.  With that in mind, here is a look at a projection of this season's Super Two class.  Please note (at the bottom) that four recent demotions have led to a lower projected cut-off number.

I am currently projecting that there will be 29 Super Two slots.

Andrew Knapp, Phillies (2.171-projected service time at end of season)
Jessie Biddle, Rangers (2.166)
Hunter Renfroe, Paders (2.165)
David Hale, Yankees (2.163)
David Dahl, Rockies (2.162)
Brent Suter, Brewers (2.161)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (2.160)
Tyler Austin, Giants (2.159)
Tyler Glasnow, Rays (2.158)
Daniel Robertson, Rays (2.156)
Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (2.153)
$Jordan Schlitter, Athletics (2.152)
Keynan Middleton, Angels (2.150)
Kyle Freeland, Rockies (2.143)
Noe Ramirez, Angels (2.139)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs (2.139)
Johan Camargo, Braves (2.137)
Chris Martin, Rangers (2.133)
Luis Cessa, Yankees (2.131)
Dinelson Lamet, Padres (2.130)
Gio Urshela, Yankees (2.127)
Paul DeJong, Cardinals (2.127)
JaCoby Jones, Tigers (2.125)
A.J. Cole, Indians (2.124)
Julio Urias, Dodgers (2.122)
Josh Hader, Brewers (2.115)
Jarlin Garcia, Marlins (2.114)
Tyler Olson, Indians (2.114)
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (2.112)

FIRST PLAYER OUT OF THE CLASS:
Matt Chapman, Athletics (2.109)


$Schlitter has been designated for assignment by Oakland.  If he is claimed by another team and stays on their roster, he will maintain his spot in the Super Two class.


Antonio Senzatela, Colorado (2.069), Ryan Brasier, Boston (2.064), Jonathan Holder, Yankees (2.063) and Dylan Covey, White Sox (2.063) have recently been demoted to AAA by their respective organizations.  With 62 days remaining in the season, any of these four players could potentially jump back into a Super Two slot if he gets back to/and stays in the majors quickly.

More Bucks for Hader? Part 6

Dylan Covey,  White Sox.

The White Sox are optioning Covey to AAA on Monday.  He will have two years and 61 days of service time when he is demoted.  He was on a path to claim one of the final Super Two spots.

The trip to the minors puts a crimp in that journey for Covey.  If he spends just 12 days in the minors, he will end the year with 2.112 of career time.  This number would make it very likely that a few bubble dwellers would leap-frog Covey and drop him out of the Super Two race.

More Bucks for Hader? Part 5

Tony Kemp, Houston.

Houston designated Kemp for assignment on Friday.  Through Friday, Kemp has two years and 47 days of career service time. 

Best Case for Hader:

The best case scenario for Josh Hader's Super Two chances in regards to Kemp sees Kemp moved to another organization and staying on that team's 25-man roster.   Kemp has enough service time to be included in the 22% but not enough to challenge for a Super Two slot.  Due to Kemp's particular status, it is better for Hader (and other players on the bubble) if Kemp stays on a big league roster.  That occurrence has the potential to create an extra Super Two slot.

More Bucks for Hader? Part 4

Pat Valaika, Colorado. 

At the moment, Valaika is still in AAA for the Rockies.  He currently has 2 years and 67 days of career service time.  If he were to be recalled today and stay up, he would end the year with 2.114.  This would put him on the bubble of Super Two status, yet one day of service time behind Josh Hader(2.115).

Best case for Hader:  

Valaika cannot catch Hader in service time; however, he still needs 36 more days of service to accrue 86 days this season.  If he can reach this threshold, it increases the number of players used to determine the 22%, which potentially benefits players on the Super Two bubble, such as Hader.

More Bucks for Hader? Part 3

Two players in the Super Two picture were designated for assignment in the last few days.  Interestingly, their each of their destinations could have unique effects on the status of the players on the Super Two bubble.

Tyler White, Houston.  (DFA'd on July 20).  Through Monday, White had 2 years and 47 days of service time.  It is better for players on the bubble if White is picked up by another team and stays on a 40-man roster through season's end.  Here's why:

White doesn't have enough career time to attain a Super Two slot.  His maximum for this season is 2.101.  If he stays on a 40-man roster he COULD, (based on the formula used to determine Super Two slots) however increase the number of available Super Two slots.

Dalton Pompey, Toronto.  (DFA'd on July 23). Through Monday, Pompey had 2 years and 97 days of service time.  If he manages to stay on an active roster through the end of the season, he will end with 2.151.  This is prime Super Two territory. 

It is better for players on the bubble if Pompey ends up being outrighted by Toronto. 

2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.14

Jonathan Holder, Yankees.

The Yankees recalled Holder from AAA on Monday.  Through Monday, Holder has 2 years and 62 days of career service time. 

If Holder stays in the majors until season's end, he will have 2.131 of service time.  This number would put him in a Super Two slot and knock someone off of the lucrative Super Two bubble.

Super Two Projection with 70 Days to Go

Through Sunday, there are now 70 days of service time left to be had this regular season.  At this point, I am projecting 29 Super Two slots will be available.  Here is a list of who I project to get the extra year of arbitration eligibility.

(Number in parenthesis is each player's projected service time at season's end.)

Andrew Knapp, Phillies (2.171)
Jesse Biddle, Rangers (2.166)
Hunter Renfroe, Padres (2.165)
David Hale, Yankees (2.163)
David Dahl, Rockies (2.162)
Brent Suter, Brewers (2.161)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (2.160)
Tyler Austin, Giants (2.159)
Tyler Glasnow, Rays (2.158)
Daniel Robertson, Rays (2.156)
Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (2.153)
Brian Schlitter, Athletics (2.152)
Dalton Pompey, Blue Jays (2.151)
Keynan Middleton, Angels (2.150)
Kyle Freeland, Rockies (2.143)
Noe Ramirez, Angels (2.139)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs (2.139)
Johan Camargo, Braves (2.137)
Chris Martin, Rangers (2.133)
Luis Cessa, Yankees (2.131)
Dinelson Lamet, Padres (2.130)
Gio Urshela, Yankees (2.127)
Paul DeJong, Cardinals (2.127)
JaCoby Jones, Tigers (2.125)
Dylan Covey, White Sox (2.125)
A.J. Cole, Indians (2.124)
Julio Urias, Dodgers (2.122)
Josh Hader, Brewers (2.115)
Tie Jarlin Garcia, Marlins (2.114)
Tie Tyler Olson, Indians (2.114)

FIRST PLAYER TO MISS THE CUT
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (2.112)


Check out how I projected the Super Two class 23 days ago, at the mid-point of the season.

2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.13

Antonio Senzatela, Colorado.

The Rockies demoted Senzatela on Sunday.  At the time of his demotion, he was on track to earn Super Two status with 2 years and 69 days of service time.

Senzatela's demotion has the same potential to affect the Super Two picture as Ryan Brasier's demotion by Boston last week.  If Senzatela stays in the minors for 27 days or more, he will fall behind several players on the Super Two bubble and lose his chance for Super Two status.

Players on the bubble (projected end of year service time):

Josh Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
Jarlin Garcia (2.114)
Tyler Olson (2.114)

#Through Sunday, there are 70 service days left in the 2019 season.

2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.12

Brian Schlitter, Oakland.

When Oakland selected Schlitter's contract in late June, he had a career service time total of 2 years and 53 days.  Schlitter has been able to avoid a demotion and through Thursday, he had 2 years and 79 days. 

If he performs well enough to stay in the big leagues through season's end, he will finish with 2.152 of career service time.  This number will certainly garner him a Super Two spot.

2019 Faces of Super Two- Part 2.11

Mac Williamson, Seattle.

The Mariners outrighted Williamson on Wednesday.  He has 75 days of service time this season and a career total of 2.016.

Juan Minaya, White Sox.

The White Sox outrighted Minaya on Wedesnday.  He has 73 days of service time this season and a career total of 2.030.

So what?

Neither of these players was in a position to claim a Super Two spot at season's end.  However, they were on track to be two of the qualifiers for the group used in determining the 22%.

With Williamson and Minaya most likely no longer on a 40-man roster, the chances of there being one less Super Two spot goes up.

2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.10- Red Sox Demote Brasier

To be honest, most of the transactions carried out during the baseball season are only of minor importance (if of any importance at all) in relation to the developing Super Two picture. However, the Red Sox made a move yesterday that in the Super Two world is huge.

On Tuesday, Boston optioned reliever Ryan Brasier to AAA.  Through Monday, Brasier had accrued a career total of two years and 64 days of service time.  He WAS on track to finish the year with 2.126 in service time.  This number put him in line to be one of the final four or five players to earn Super Two status.

This demotion could alter that destination for Brasier.

If he stays in the minors for 15 or more days, his career total at season's end could very easily drop below the threshold needed to earn an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  A stay of 25 days in the minors will put him on track to end the season with 2.115 of career service time, at great risk to be left out of the Super Two circle.

Super Two- What Does 22% Mean?

22% is a key number when it comes to determining Super Two status.  Here's why.

At the end of the MLB regular season(September 29 in 2019), there will be a specific number of players who are

1) On a 40-man roster.
2) Have at least two full years of MLB service time.
3) Have less than three full years of MLB service time.
4) Have at least 86 days of service time during the 2019 season.

Once this number is determined, 22% kicks in.  Of the players who meet the four qualifications listed above, the top 22% in terms of over-all MLB service time gain status as a Super Two(rounding is not included in this calculation).  As a result, these players gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility, with their first year of abritration being this off-season.

NOTE:  If two or more players are tied for the final Super Two spot, all the players involved in the tie receive the designation.

Here's a breakdown of how the math works out:

If there are 91-95 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 20 Super Twos.
If there are 96-99 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 21 Super Twos.
If there are 100-104 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 22 Super Twos.
If there are 105-109 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 23 Super Twos.
If there are 110-113 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 24 Super Twos.
If there are 114-118 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 25 Super Twos.
If there are 119-122 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 26 Super Twos.
If there are 123-127 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 27 Super Twos.
If there are 128-131 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 28 Super Twos.
If there are 132-136 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 29 Super Twos.
If there are 137-140 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 30 Super Twos.
If there are 141-145 players in the Qualifying Group, there will be 31 Super Twos.

More Bucks for Hader? Part II

Yesterday, I looked at the first factor that will influence the chances of Josh Hader qualifying for Super Two status.  If you missed it, check out How Many Players with More Service Time than Hader Qualify for Super Two Status?

Today, let's take a look at the second factor.

How many players with LESS service time than Hader are qualified for Super Two status?

The number of Super Two slots is based on the number of players who end a given season with at least two years of career service time, less than three years of career service time, and at least 86 days of service time in the completed season.

The top 22% of the players with these qualifications(not including remainders BUT including ties) are granted SUPER TWO status.  Doing the math, there is one SUPER TWO slot for every 4.5 players in the group.

Keeping this in mind, it is beneficial for Josh Hader (and other bubble dwellers) to have more players earn at least two years of service time, as long as though players don't pass Hader's 2 years and 115 days of service time.

The following seven players have no chance for Super Two status.  However, if they make it to two years of service time, they could potentially be responsible for the opening of an additional Super Two slot for someone on the bubble.


Daniel Mengden, Oakland- (1.166, career through July 8) (38 days in 2019)- needs at least 48 days.

Phil Maton, San Diego- (1.159) (52 days)- needs at least 34 days- currently in minors.

Jarrett Parker, Angels- (1.149) (6 days)- needs at least 80 days.

Yadiel Rivera, Miami- (1.130) (25 days)- needs at least 61 days.

Jose Cisnero, Detroit- (1.109) (17 days)- needs at least 69 days.

Dustin Garneau, Angels- (1.097) (39 days)- needs at least 75 days.

Rookie Davis, Pittsburgh- (1.090) (45 days)- needs at least 82 days.

More Bucks for Hader? Part I

Now that the All Star Break has arrived, the Super Two picture is starting to take shape. One person of interest who has surfaced in the race is Milwaukee reliever Josh Hader.

Hader is on pace to end the season with 2 years and 115 days of big league service time.  Historically, that amount of service time has landed outside of the Super Two qualification range.  However, as I have tracked the Super Two picture to this point in the 2019 season, it appears that Hader's number puts him squarely on the bubble of that lucrative group.

There are two factors which effect Hader's chances of being a Super Two.  Today, we will look at the first of those two factors.

Factor #1:  How many players with more service time than Hader qualify for Super Two status?

Simply put, more players in this category equals less slots for Hader (and other bubble dwellers) to jump into.

Grant Dayton, Atlanta.  (2 years, 95 days, career through July 8) (21 days in 2019).

Two scenarios for Dayton will be beneficial to Hader's chances.

1.  Dayton stays in the big leagues for at least 77 more days this season.  That would give him a full three years and move him out of the Super Two picture entirely.

2.  Dayton stays in the big leagues for less than 64 days.  In this case, Dayton would not have at least 86 days of service time this season, and he would fall from the Super Two picture.

Brian Schlitter, Oakland. (2 years, 69 days) (16 days).

Schlitter poses a problem for Hader and other bubble dwellers if he stays in the big leagues for at least 70 more days.  That number would give Schlitter the necessary 86 days this season and a career total of 2 years and 139 days.  This would certainly give him a Super Two spot.

Pat Valaika, Colorado. (2 years, 43 days) (46 days).

Where Valaika spends the remainder of the season could help Hader's chances or it could hurt them.

Valaika helps Hader the most if:  

Valaika spends 40-72 days in the big leagues.  In this case, Valaika reaches 86 days for the season and at most ends tied with Hader in service time at the end of the season.  This means Valaika is included in the Super Two picture, but if he and Hader ARE tied at 2.115, they would share a SUPER TWO spot.

Valaika hurts Hader if:

Valaika spends more than 72 days in the big leagues.  In this case, Valaika is ahead of Hader in service time and takes a bubble spot from him.

Valaika hurts and helps Hader if:

Valaika spends less than 40 days in the big leagues.  In this case, Valaika doesn't reach 86 days of service time for this season.  The result of this event is that one less player will be used to calculate (multiply by 22%) the number of Super Two spots.

He won't take a spot from Hader in this case, but there could potentially be one less Super Two spot to be had due to Valaika's absence.


Next Up: Part II, How many players with less service time than Hader are in the Super Two group?

2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.9

Burch Smith, Milwaukee.

The Brewers called Smith up from AAA on Saturday.  With Saturday included, Smith has a career total of 2 years and 59 days of service time.

In all likelihood, a demotion back to the minors is in Smith's near future.  However, if Smith grabs the opportunity with a stellar performance and stays in the majors until season's end, he would end the year with 2.144 of service time.  This number would put Smith in prime position to earn a coveted Super Two spot.