Almost, but Not Quite for the Skeeters

After a win Thursday night, the Skeeters are on the brink of an Atlantic League play-off berth with just three games left in the regular season.  The Skeeters need one win against York, one Southern Maryland loss to Long Island or, oddly enough, two Lancaster wins or three Lancaster losses against Camden to clinch a spot in the post-season.

There is, in fact, only one possible outcome of the nine games remaining to be played by Sugar Land, Southern Maryland, and Lancaster that leaves the Skeeters out of the play-offs.  Let me break it down.

Current Freedom Divsion standings:

Sugar Land- 40-27 - ------
Lancaster-    39-28 -    1
S. Maryland-37-30 -    3

Current Full- Season "Wild Card Standings:

Sugar Land-  78-59 -    -----
Lancaster-     78-59 -    -----


If Sugar Land closes 0-3, Lancaster closes- 1-2 and Southern Maryland closes- 3-0, Sugar Land misses the post-season.  Here's why:  

This close to the season would leave the three teams in a three-way tie for the second half title at 40-30.  Southern Maryland would win the title because they have the best record in head to head games among the three teams in the second half.  SM-13-10, Sugar Land-9-10, Lancaster-10-12.

Lancaster would earn the wild card over Sugar Land based on a better over-all season record. Lancaster- 79-61, Sugar Land- 78-62.


What if Lancaster wins two or three games while Sugar Land loses three?

Lancaster would win the second half title outright.  Sugar Land would claim the wild card.

What if Lancaster and Sugar Land both lose three, while Southern Maryland wins three?

Southern Maryland would win the second half title over Sugar Land based on a better second half record against the Skeeters.  The Skeeters would win the wild card over Lancaster based on their better second half record against the Barnstormers.

Can all the complexity be avoided?

Of course, the Skeeters can make everything much simpler by just winning the Freedom Division second half title. Since they own the tiebreaker over Lancaster, their magic number to win the second half is two.  A Skeeter second half title makes Lancaster the wild card.


NOTE:  The Freedom Division Second half winner will face York.  The  Wild Card will face Somerset in the play-offs.