Brewers Free Agents and Arbitration Eligibles

Brewers eligible for free agency after the 2017 season:

Matt Garza, 34, P
Eric Sogard, 31, IF
Anthony Swarzak, 32, P
Neil Walker, 32, IF


Brewers eligible for arbitration after the 2017 season:

Jared Hughes, 32, P (2018)
Carlos Torres, 35, P (2018)
Jeremy Jeffress, 30, P(2019)
Stephen Vogt, 33, C (2019)
Chase Anderson, 30, P (2020)
Jimmy Nelson, 28, P (2020)
Hernan Perez, 26, IF (2020)
Jonathan Villar, 26, IF (2020)
Corey Knebel, 26, P (2021)


All ages are as of April 1, 2018

(Years in parenthesis are the season after which that player becomes free agent eligible assuming they stay on big league roster continuously until that year.)

The Super Twos- The Final Regular Season Projection

With the end of the regular season just around the corner, this is my final projection of who the Super Twos will be this off-season.  The numbers shown are the projected end of season service times for these players.

1. Kris Bryant-2.171
1. Nick Martinez-2.171
3. Maikel Franco-2.170
4. Carlos Rodon-2.168
4. Keone Kela-2.168
6. Addison Russell-2.167
7. Chasen Shreve-2.165
8. Hunter Strickland-2.163
8. Mike Foltynewicz- 2.163
10. Felipe Rivero-2.162
11. Michael Lorenzen-2.159
12. Raisel Iglesias-2.154
13. Cam Bedrosian-2.153
14. Corey Knebel-2.151
15. Andrew Heaney-2.150
16. Noah Syndergaard-2.149
17. Jorge Soler-2.141
18. Lance McCullers, Jr.-2.140
19. J.C. Ramirez-2.139
20. Matt Szczur-2.134
20. Yolmer Carlos Sanchez-2.134
22. Eduardo Rodriguez-2.130
23. Blaine Hardy-2.129
24. Hansel Robles-2.128
25. Ryan Rua-2.127
26. Eddie Rosario-2.120

First player off the bubble- Carlos Correa- 2.119



I plan to post two more times on the 2017 class.

1) Once the season ends, I will post access to the database that I used to determine this list.

2) Once the Super Twos are announced, I will look at how accurately my efforts predicted the Super Two class. If I made any mistakes, I will attempt to figure out what they were for future reference.

Brewers Super Two Watch

As the All-Star Break approaches, the Brewers have eight players in line to finish the season with at least three and less than six years of major league service time.  These players will be eligible for salary arbitration heading into the 2018 season.  Players in bold will be eligible for arbitration for the first time.

Chase Anderson, P
Jared Hughes, P
Jeremy Jeffress, P
Jimmy Nelson, P
Hernan Perez, IF
Carlos Torres, P
Jonathan Villar, IF
Stephen Vogt, C

In addition to these eight players, three current Brewers have a chance of becoming arbitration eligible for the first time either by accruing three years of service time or as SUPER TWOs.  Super Two status is granted to players who:

#1 Have at least years two years and less than three years of major league service time at the end of a season.

#2 Rank in the top 22% of players of all players who have at least two years and less than three years of service time- in terms of service time accrued. Please note that the exact number of days of service needed to qualify for Super Two status varies from season to season.  The number usually falls between 2 years and 120 days and 2 years and 145 days.

#3 Accrued at least 86 days of major league service time in the just completed season.


Based on this information, a look at the Brewer in the running for Super Two arbitration status:

Corey Knebel, P

Service Time at beginning of season: 1 year and 151 days
Service Time accrued this season: 172 days

Total Service time at end of season: 2 years, 151 days

OUTLOOK:  A lock to be a Super Two

Super Two Projections- The Second Draft

UPDATE on Sunday, September 17:  El Paso, Chase d'Arnaud's AAA team has been eliminated fro the play-offs.  See the bottom of this post to see how d'Arnaud's promotion, if it happens, could affect the Super Two picture.

I am almost ready to finalize my list of this off-season's Super Two qualifiers with a caveat.

I don't have access to official service time numbers and there is the possibility I misinterpreted the guidelines for determining Super Two status. However, I am confident that I have this roster correct. If I find out that I don't, I'll be the first one to tell you.

Service time numbers shown are projected for the end of the regular season.

1. Kris Bryant-2.171
1. Nick Martinez-2.171
3. Maikel Franco-2.170
4. Carlos Rodon-2.168
4. Keone Kela-2.168
6. Addison Russell-2.167
7. Chasen Shreve-2.165
8. Hunter Strickland-2.163
8. Mike Foltynewicz- 2.163
10. Felipe Rivero-2.162
11. Michael Lorenzen-2.159
12. Raisel Iglesias-2.154
13. Cam Bedrosian-2.153
14. Corey Knebel-2.151
15. Andrew Heaney-2.150
16. Noah Syndergaard-2.149
17. Jorge Soler-2.141
18. Lance McCullers, Jr.-2.140
19. J.C. Ramirez-2.139
20. Matt Szczur-2.134
20. Yolmer Carlos Sanchez-2.134
22. Eduardo Rodriguez-2.130
23. Blaine Hardy-2.129
24. Hansel Robles-2.128
25. Ryan Rua-2.127
26. Eddie Rosario-2.120

Note: There is still a chance that Chase d'Arnaud could have his contract selected by Padres.  He is still participating in the PCL play-offs. If that were to happen, he would jump into the Super Two line.  d'Arnaud currently has 2 years and 141 days of service time.  Depending on when his contract is selected, he would likely be in the 12th to 16th position.  As a result of d'Arnaud's ascension, Eddie Rosario would be bumped and need to wait another year to earn arbitration status.

Post-Season Eligibility in the Age of September Call-Ups

First of all, thanks to Tom Haudricourt for pointing out the error of my first analysis that led to this post.

Yesterday after my first week back in a fourth grade classroom, I read that the Brewers had a) selected the contract of Aaron Wilkerson, b) Designated Yadiel Rivera for assignment and c) Placed Jimmy Nelson on the 10-day Disabled List.

Some of you remember me from my Days of Farmstros when the minutiae of baseball transactions was my "jam".  Those days are behind me now as I have moved on to different things.  However, after a week of interacting with 9 and 10  and a few 11 year olds all day long, the prospect of pondering baseball transactions and all their intricacies got that part of my brain revved up again.  It was a nice blast from the past.

The question that immediately jump up in my cranium was, "Why DFA Yadiel Rivera when it would be simple enough to put Jimmy Nelson on the 60-day Disabled List?"

The answer is rooted in the possibility of Milwaukee making it to the post-season.

Before yesterday, none of the players on the Brewers roster of post-season eligible players was injured. The roster of post-season eligible players is essentially comprised of all players on a team's 40-man roster as of the end of August 31.  I think in the Brewers' case, this included everyone on the 40-man roster except for Quintin Berry.  Berry was added to the 40-man roster on September 5, when his contract was selected.

Why is this important? 

A team that qualifies for the post-season can petition with MLB to replace an injured player who is on the post-season eligibility roster with another player who was in the organization(40-man roster or not) at the end of August 31.  The fact that Jimmy Nelson is now injured (and eligible for the post-season roster) means the Brewers could petition to replace him with someone else from their organization assuming they make the post-season.

As I understand it, the replacement is not limited to players added to the 40-man roster in September. It could indeed be Aaron Wilkerson or Quintin Berry.  It could also be (within the scope of the rule), Rob Scahill or Michael Blazek or Keston Hiura or Yadiel Rivera.  I don't think a pitcher has to be replaced by a pitcher, but I could be wrong about that.

So why not just put Nelson on the 60-day Disabled List? 

The upside of putting Nelson on the 60-day DL is that it would open a spot on the 40-man roster for Aaron Wilkerson and Yadiel Rivera stays under complete control.  However, there is a catch.

Any player on the 60 day Disabled List has to be on said list for at least 60 days to maintain their post-season eligibility status.  This means that if Nelson had been placed on the 60 day DL, he would be removed from the post-season eligibility roster. There would be no potential to petition to replace him on that list with Wilkerson or Scahill or Berry or Hiura or anyone else for that matter.

Having said all this, I will shut down the baseball transaction portion of my brain and go back to using the part that manages 9,10 and 11 year olds.  Thanks.

Super Two Picture all But Complete

With Ryan Rua's promotion yesterday, the Super Two arbitration picture is nearing full development.
It appears that 26 players, including Rua will earn the extra arbitration year this off-season.  Only two players who can affect the over-all Super Two standings are still participating in the minor league play-offs.

Rob Scahill is pitching for Colorado Springs(Milwaukee) in the PCL play-offs.  Chase D'arnaud is in the El Paso(San Diego) lineup in the same league.  It's not likely that either of these players make it to the big leagues once the minor league play-offs wrap up, especially since neither is on a 40-man roster. However, a Scahill and/or D'arnaud promotion would bump Eddie Rosario  and then Ryan Rua from the bottom of the Super Two list.

Could Jumbo Diaz have cost Carlos Correa $4.5 Million?

It is not uncommon for Major League teams to promote top prospects with an eye on those players' service time clock. Teams engage this strategy so that they can avoid giving prospects an extra year of salary arbitration. Simply put, teams manipulate the process at the FRONT END.

This season, while closely monitoring the potential Super Two class of 2017 , I have several times had the thought, "Could a team manipulate the Super Two process at the BACK END?"

What would such BACK END manipulation look like?  A Great Question!

Here's a look at six steps that would be involved:

STEP #1- Manipulate the Front End

Perhaps it goes without saying, but in order to effectively manipulate the back end of the process, you need to start the process two years ahead of time-at the beginning of the game.

My Example: I looked at the promotion of Carlos Correa by Houston in 2015.  Correa accrued 119 days of service time during that season.  This number (with two added years of service time) would put Correa right on the edge of Super Two status in 2017.

Looking back to another notable 2015 example, The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant a mere 12 days into the season-giving him 171 service days by season's end.  This number assured an extra year before Bryant could be a FREE AGENT, but it also assured he would be a SUPER TWO in 2017.

By contrast in 2015, Cleveland promoted Francisco Lindor on June 14.  This promotion date allowed Lindor to accrue only 113 days of service time, a safer number than the 119 earned by Correa.  With this strategy, the Indians guaranteed themselves that Lindor wouldn't be arbitration eligible until the 2018 off-season.

STEP #2- Fast Forward Two Years and Monitor the Service Time Numbers

Assuming that your "Prospect" progresses as expected, the next step is to keep an eye on the service time levels throughout the league as the 2017 season progresses.  Special focus should be given to those players who have a chance to end the season with at least 2 and less than 3 years of service time. I started doing this around the All-Star Break, and it was possible at that point in time, to get an idea of which players were certain to be Super Twos, which ones were on the bubble and how many players would be between 2 years and 3 years of service time.

My Example:  I started my service time tracking project around the All-Star Break. It was possible at that point in time, to get an idea of which players were certain to be Super Twos, which ones were on the bubble and how many players would be between 2 years and 3 years of service time.

It was quickly evident that Carlos Correa would more likely than not fall just outside the Super Two qualifying range. However, this was not a done deal.  If a few players were demoted, promoted, etc., Correa could sneak off of the bubble and get into arbitration line.  His situation merited observation.

STEP #3- Find an Ace to Put Up Your Sleeve

This ace has some specific qualifications.

1. He needs to have service time in the given year of at least 60 days.

This number will assure that he can reach 86 days of service time in the current season if you put your plan in place.

2. He needs to have career service time in the range of 2.105 to 2.135.  

If he has to much service time, he could pass the 3 year threshold and hamper your plan.
If he has too little service time, he won't be able to accrue enough service time to make your plan effective.

Simply put, he needs to be able to finish the season with more service time than your  "Prospect".

3. He needs to be a free agent during the season.  

It seems like this qualification is the hardest of the three to find.  Numerous players with the first two qualifications are removed from 40-man roster during the season.  However, most of them are either claimed off of waivers by another team(and join a new 40-man roster) or they are outrighted and remain in the same organization.

I think the plan would work with a waiver pick up or trade as well, but there are extra costs to a team for using those transactions and they require the use of a precious 40-man roster spot.

My Example: Let me introduce you to veteran pitcher Jumbo Diaz.  Tampa Bay outrighted Diaz on July 19.  However on July 21, Diaz elected free agency rather than accepting an assignment to the minor leagues.  At that time, Diaz had accrued 108 days of service time this season.  His career total of service time was 2.128.

Houston signed Jumbo Diaz to a minor league contract on July 31.

STEP #4- Keep Monitoring the Transactions Page

It could be that the numbers work out and your "Prospect" falls outside of the range of Super Two status.

However keep watching because a few injuries here or a big slump could change the scenario quickly.  If you keep an accurate accounting through August and into September,  these alterations are easily detectable.  As the minor league season ends, you can decide if you need to implement your plan.

My Example: My calculations show that Correa is the first player on the Super Two bubble.  More specifically, he WILL be the first player on the bubble after Texas promotes Ryan Rua.  Rua is expected to be promoted on September 7.

If Correa is indeed the first player off the list, a celebration is order. Houston played the game perfectly back in 2015.  The team had Correa for exactly the number of days they could afford to that season.

However, it is not far-fetched to think another scenario could have played out during the season.  If circumstances had led to one player not being promoted Rua, Jorge Soler, or Blaine Hardy, for example,  Correa would be in line to receive the final Super Two Golden Ticket.

If scenario had unfolded, Step 5 would be in order.

Step #5- Implement the Plan

At this point, you select the contract of you Ace in the Hole.  This means you will need to remove someone from your 40-man roster to make space.  When you add your Ace, he will join those players in the Super Two range.  He should be ahead of your "Prospect" in terms of service time, so he will bump the "Prospect" off of the Golden Ticket List.

Warning:  Given that the number of players eligible for Super Two status is determined by multiplying the number of players with at least 2 and less than 3 years of service time by .22, adding your Ace could also lead to an extra Super Two slot.  This would make your plan ineffectual.

For example,
117 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
118 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
119 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
120 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos

121 players in the pool= 27 Super Twos

My Example: For the purpose of my example, I assume for some bizarre reason, Ryan Rua does not get promoted.  Diaz could have his contract selected(assuming the Astros can find space for him on the 40-man roster).  Diaz would wrap the season with plenty of service time to be a Super Two and Correa would be just off of the bubble, eligible for arbitration after the 2018 season.

In my example, my calculations show that there are currently 118 players in the pool. This number could go as low as 117 or as high as 120 depending on what happens to the players still in the minor league play-offs.  Assuming the pool number stays at 119 or lower, Diaz could have his contract selected without creating another Super Two spot.

Step #6- Prepare for Arbitration

I'm not sure how much you will save by having the ACE UP YOUR SLEEVE arbitration eligible instead of a young top-level prospect/Now Star.  I do know that it would be a substantial amount going into the 2018 season.

My Example: Whose arbitration eligibility would be more costly Jumbo Diaz or Carlos Correa?

Now that the season is in its final month and the Super Two picture is mostly developed, it does appear that such maneuvering is possible.  However, it is complicated, and it requires pieces to fall into place in exactly the right order.

Super Two/Arbitration Update: The First Draft

Now that the minor league regular season has concluded, the Super Two picture is becoming even clearer.  Below is a first draft of who the Super Twos will be according to my calculations.  This list could change as a few more call-ups are still a possibility.

I count 116 or 117 players who will end the season with at least 2  years and less than 3 years of service time.(Depending on if the Padres promote Travis Jankowski before season's end)

If either of these numbers prove true, 26 players will be designated as Super Twos.  Here are the top 30 on the list in order of service time projected at the end of the MLB regular season.

1. Kris Bryant-2.171
1. Nick Martinez-2.171
3. Maikel Franco-2.170
4. Carlos Rodon-2.168
4. Keone Kela-2.168
6. Addison Russell-2.167
7. Chasen Shreve-2.165
8. Hunter Strickland-2.163
8. Mike Foltynewicz- 2.163
10. Felipe Rivero-2.162
11. Michael Lorenzen-2.159
12. Raisel Iglesias-2.154
13. Cam Bedrosian-2.153
14. Corey Knebel-2.151
15. Andrew Heaney-2.150
16. Noah Syndergaard-2.149
17. Jorge Soler-2.141
18. Lance McCullers, Jr.-2.140
19. J.C. Ramirez-2.139
20. Matt Szczur-2.134
20. Yolmer Carlos Sanchez-2.134
22. Eduardo Rodriguez-2.130
23. Blaine Hardy-2.129
24. Hansel Robles-2.128
25. Ryan Rua-2.127
26. Eddie Rosario-2.120
27. Carlos Correa-2.119
28. Delino DeShields, Jr.-2.116
28. Dominic Leone-2.116
30. Roenis Elias-2.115

Super Two/Arbitration Watch- The Locks

With just under two months left in the season, 16 players are locks to qualify for Super Two status.

Kris Bryant, Cubs
Maikel Franco, Philadelphia
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
Addison Russell, Cubs
Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta
Hunter Strickland, San Francisco
Felipe Rivero, Pittsburgh
Michael Lorenzen, Cincinnati
Keone Kela, Texas
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati
Cam Bedrosian, Angels
Corey Knebel, Milwaukee
Lance McCullers, Jr., Houston
J.C. Ramirez, Angels
Yolmer Carlos Sanchez, White Sox
Matt Szczur, San Diego

Three more added on September 4:
Andrew Heaney, Angels
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Chasen Shreve, Yankees

Super Two/Arbitration Update: September Call-ups, Part II

With the AAA regular season wrapping up today, there are a total of 10 players still in the minors who could have an effect on the Super Two picture during the off-season. Only four of the 10 are on teams that are slated for a play-off appearance, so six, if they are to be promoted, will be promoted tomorrow or soon thereafter.  Here are the 10 in order of MLB service time.

Player/Organization/Service Time this season/Total Service Time

Joc Pederson/Dodgers/139 days/2.167

Phil Gosselin/Rangers/62 days/2.147

Chase D'Arnaud/Padres/96 days/2.141#%

Rob Scahill/Brewers/71 days/2.137#%

Jumbo Diaz/Astros/108 days/2.128#

Jorge Soler/Royals/81 days/2.114

Christian Colon/Marlins/96 days/2.104#

Ryan Rua/Rangers/95 days/2.103

Chaz Roe/Rays/102 days/2.066%

Travis Jankowski/Padres/124 days/1.171%

# Player is not currently on a 40-man roster
%- Player is on a team scheduled to participate in the post-season

Super Two/Arbitration Update: Non-Roster Players

With four weeks left in the regular season, there are five players, currently not on a 40-man roster, who could still have an effect on the Super Two picture.  All five players are in AAA at the moment. Four of the five could qualify as Super Twos if they have their contract selected.

Player/Organization/Service Time this season/Total Service Time

Chase D'Arnaud/San Diego/96 days/2.141

Rob Scahill/Milwaukee/71 days/2.137

Jumbo Diaz/Houston/108 days/2.128

Christian Colon/Miami/96 days/2.104

Chaz Roe/Tampa Bay/102 days/2.066
Further research shows that Chaz Roe is actually on Tampa Bay's 40-man roster.


NOTE:  Only Roe is completely eliminated from the possibility of Super Two status.  His maximum possible service time at the end of the year is 2 years 95 days(if he has his contract selected today). However, if he finds his way onto a 40-man roster he would add to the pool of players used to calculate the 22%.

Super Two/Arbitration Update: Blaine Hardy

Blaine Hardy, Detroit. Of more than 160 transactions on September 1, the promotion of Blaine Hardy by the Tigers has the most effect on the upcoming Super Two picture.

Assuming Hardy remains with Detroit until the end of the regular season, which seems likely now that rosters have expanded, he will complete the year with 2 years, 129 days of service time.  This number will almost certainly elevate him into a Super Two slot.

Since there is a limited(though variable) number of Super Two slots each season, Hardy's ascension pushes someone else off of the bubble and into a league minimum salary in 2018.  At the moment, Eddie Rosario of the Twins seems to be the most likely candidate.

The Runners-up:  Curt Casali(Tampa Bay) and Carlos Perez(Angels) were promoted on Friday. They don't have enough service time to be in the running for Super Two status.  However, Casali and Perez should accrue two plus years of service time by the end of the season, thus expanding the number of players in the pool used to determine the top 22% eligible for Super Two status.

NOTE:  After more research, I think Casali and Perez may not make any difference to the equation as they will  not be able to accrue the necessary 86 days of service time this season.

There are still players whose promotion(perhaps on Tuesday after the minor league regular season is ended) can effect the Super Two puzzle.