It is not uncommon for Major League teams to promote top prospects with an eye on those players' service time clock. Teams engage this strategy so that they can avoid giving prospects an extra year of salary arbitration. Simply put, teams manipulate the process at the FRONT END.
This season, while closely monitoring the potential Super Two class of 2017 , I have several times had the thought, "Could a team manipulate the Super Two process at the BACK END?"
What would such BACK END manipulation look like? A Great Question!
Here's a look at six steps that would be involved:
STEP #1- Manipulate the Front End
Perhaps it goes without saying, but in order to effectively manipulate the back end of the process, you need to start the process two years ahead of time-at the beginning of the game.
My Example: I looked at the promotion of Carlos Correa by Houston in 2015. Correa accrued 119 days of service time during that season. This number (with two added years of service time) would put Correa right on the edge of Super Two status in 2017.
Looking back to another notable 2015 example, The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant a mere 12 days into the season-giving him 171 service days by season's end. This number assured an extra year before Bryant could be a FREE AGENT, but it also assured he would be a SUPER TWO in 2017.
By contrast in 2015, Cleveland promoted Francisco Lindor on June 14. This promotion date allowed Lindor to accrue only 113 days of service time, a safer number than the 119 earned by Correa. With this strategy, the Indians guaranteed themselves that Lindor wouldn't be arbitration eligible until the 2018 off-season.
STEP #2- Fast Forward Two Years and Monitor the Service Time Numbers
Assuming that your "Prospect" progresses as expected, the next step is to keep an eye on the service time levels throughout the league as the 2017 season progresses. Special focus should be given to those players who have a chance to end the season with at least 2 and less than 3 years of service time. I started doing this around the All-Star Break, and it was possible at that point in time, to get an idea of which players were certain to be Super Twos, which ones were on the bubble and how many players would be between 2 years and 3 years of service time.
My Example: I started my service time tracking project around the All-Star Break. It was possible at that point in time, to get an idea of which players were certain to be Super Twos, which ones were on the bubble and how many players would be between 2 years and 3 years of service time.
It was quickly evident that Carlos Correa would more likely than not fall just outside the Super Two qualifying range. However, this was not a done deal. If a few players were demoted, promoted, etc., Correa could sneak off of the bubble and get into arbitration line. His situation merited observation.
STEP #3- Find an Ace to Put Up Your Sleeve
This ace has some specific qualifications.
1. He needs to have service time in the given year of at least 60 days.
This number will assure that he can reach 86 days of service time in the current season if you put your plan in place.
2. He needs to have career service time in the range of 2.105 to 2.135.
If he has to much service time, he could pass the 3 year threshold and hamper your plan.
If he has too little service time, he won't be able to accrue enough service time to make your plan effective.
Simply put, he needs to be able to finish the season with more service time than your "Prospect".
3. He needs to be a free agent during the season.
It seems like this qualification is the hardest of the three to find. Numerous players with the first two qualifications are removed from 40-man roster during the season. However, most of them are either claimed off of waivers by another team(and join a new 40-man roster) or they are outrighted and remain in the same organization.
I think the plan would work with a waiver pick up or trade as well, but there are extra costs to a team for using those transactions and they require the use of a precious 40-man roster spot.
My Example: Let me introduce you to veteran pitcher Jumbo Diaz. Tampa Bay outrighted Diaz on July 19. However on July 21, Diaz elected free agency rather than accepting an assignment to the minor leagues. At that time, Diaz had accrued 108 days of service time this season. His career total of service time was 2.128.
Houston signed Jumbo Diaz to a minor league contract on July 31.
STEP #4- Keep Monitoring the Transactions Page
It could be that the numbers work out and your "Prospect" falls outside of the range of Super Two status.
However keep watching because a few injuries here or a big slump could change the scenario quickly. If you keep an accurate accounting through August and into September, these alterations are easily detectable. As the minor league season ends, you can decide if you need to implement your plan.
My Example: My calculations show that Correa is the first player on the Super Two bubble. More specifically, he WILL be the first player on the bubble after Texas promotes Ryan Rua. Rua is expected to be promoted on September 7.
If Correa is indeed the first player off the list, a celebration is order. Houston played the game perfectly back in 2015. The team had Correa for exactly the number of days they could afford to that season.
However, it is not far-fetched to think another scenario could have played out during the season. If circumstances had led to one player not being promoted Rua, Jorge Soler, or Blaine Hardy, for example, Correa would be in line to receive the final Super Two Golden Ticket.
If scenario had unfolded, Step 5 would be in order.
Step #5- Implement the Plan
At this point, you select the contract of you Ace in the Hole. This means you will need to remove someone from your 40-man roster to make space. When you add your Ace, he will join those players in the Super Two range. He should be ahead of your "Prospect" in terms of service time, so he will bump the "Prospect" off of the Golden Ticket List.
Warning: Given that the number of players eligible for Super Two status is determined by multiplying the number of players with at least 2 and less than 3 years of service time by .22, adding your Ace could also lead to an extra Super Two slot. This would make your plan ineffectual.
For example,
117 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
118 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
119 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
120 players in the pool= 26 Super Twos
121 players in the pool= 27 Super Twos
My Example: For the purpose of my example, I assume for some bizarre reason, Ryan Rua does not get promoted. Diaz could have his contract selected(assuming the Astros can find space for him on the 40-man roster). Diaz would wrap the season with plenty of service time to be a Super Two and Correa would be just off of the bubble, eligible for arbitration after the 2018 season.
In my example, my calculations show that there are currently 118 players in the pool. This number could go as low as 117 or as high as 120 depending on what happens to the players still in the minor league play-offs. Assuming the pool number stays at 119 or lower, Diaz could have his contract selected without creating another Super Two spot.
Step #6- Prepare for Arbitration
I'm not sure how much you will save by having the ACE UP YOUR SLEEVE arbitration eligible instead of a young top-level prospect/Now Star. I do know that it would be a substantial amount going into the 2018 season.
My Example: Whose arbitration eligibility would be more costly Jumbo Diaz or Carlos Correa?
Now that the season is in its final month and the Super Two picture is mostly developed, it does appear that such maneuvering is possible. However, it is complicated, and it requires pieces to fall into place in exactly the right order.
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