The Super Two Class is Just About Set

After today, just 10 days are left in the regular season. Something unforeseen could happen in those 10 days and cause a shift in the Super Two picture; however, it appears the Super Two class will end up looking like this.

1. Severino, Yankees(2.170)
2. Jankowski, San Digeo(2.169)
3. Plawecki, Mets(2.167)
4. Perez, Texas(2.166)
4. Hedges, San Diego(2.166)
6. Swihart, Boston(2.164)
6. Drury, Toronto(2.164)
8. Marte, Arizona(2.162)
9. Wolters, Colorado(2.161)
10. Goody, Cleveland(2.159)
10. Buxton, Minnesota(2.159)
12. Fulmer, Detroit(2.157)
12. Manaea, Oakland(2.157)
14. Guerra, Milwaukee(2.155)
15. Ramirez, Atlanta(2.153)
16. Kepler, Minnesota(2.152)
17. Conley, Miami(2.147)
18. Marte, Angels(2.146)
18. Dickerson, San Diego(2.146)
20. Rogers, Minnesota(2.145)
20. Davidson, White Sox(2.145)
22. Peraza, Cincinnati(2.141)
22. Butler, Texas(2.141)
24. Dull, Oakland(2.140)
25. Torreyes, Yankees(2.138)
26. Boyd, Detroit(2.136)
27. Turner, Washington(2.135)
28. Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134)
28. Edwards, Cubs(2.134)
28. Biagini, Toronto(2.134)

-------------------------------
The first three projected to miss the cut:
31. Schebler, Cincinnati(2.132)
32. Bush, Texas(2.131)
33. Miller, Washington(2.128)

Future Super Twos???

As the 2018 season draws to a close, here is a look at 20 players in line to be at the front of the pack when the race for next season's Super Two slots commences.

The number is parenthesis is the player's projected service time at the end of the 2018 season.

Renfroe, SD (1.165)
Suter, Milwaukee (1.161)
Bellinger, Dodgers (1.160)
Glasnow, Tampa Bay (1.158)
Robertson, Tampa Bay (1.156)
Montgomery, Yankees (1.153)
Cole, Yankees (1.152)
Middleton, Angels (1.150)
Riddle, Miami (1.148)
Sewald, Mets (1.148)
Holder, Yankees (1.144)
Happ, Cubs (1.142)
Ramirez, Noe, Angels (1.139)
Camargo, Atlanta (1.137)
Martin, Chris, Texas (1.133)
Lamet, SD (1.130)
Pivetta, Philadelphia (1.129)
Mengden, Oakland (1.127)
Altavilla, Seattle (1.126)
DeJong, St. Louis (1.124)

A Tale of Two Super Two Endings

As far as I can tell, the completion of the Super Two picture hinges on the status of Colin Rea.  Will he be promoted or won't he?  With 20 days left in the season(after Monday), here are two Super Two projections.  NOTE: If Rea is promoted after Tuesday, the first projection will stay the same except for Rea's exact ranking in the list.

UPDATE ON SEPTEMBER 11:  The Padres announced four promotions from AAA on Tuesday.  Colin Rea was not one of them.  My assumption is that Rea will not be promoted at all this month, and the second of the following projections will be the correct one.

If Rea is promoted on Tuesday and stays up the rest of the season.

1. Severino, Yankees(2.170)
2. Jankowski, San Digeo(2.169)
3. Plawecki, Mets(2.167)
4. Perez, Texas(2.166)
4. Hedges, San Diego(2.166)
6. Swihart, Boston(2.164)
6. Drury, Toronto(2.164)
8. Marte, Arizona(2.162)
9. Wolters, Colorado(2.161)
10. Goody, Cleveland(2.159)
10. Rea, San Diego(2.159)
10. Buxton, Minnesota(2.159)
13. Fulmer, Detroit(2.157)
13. Manaea, Oakland(2.157)
15. Guerra, Milwaukee(2.155)
16. Ramirez, Atlanta(2.153)
17. Kepler, Minnesota(2.152)
18. Conley, Miami(2.147)
19. Marte, Angels(2.146)
19. Dickerson, San Diego(2.146)
21. Rogers, Minnesota(2.145)
21. Davidson, White Sox(2.145)
23. Peraza, Cincinnati(2.141)
23. Butler, Texas(2.141)
25. Dull, Oakland(2.140)
26. Torreyes, Yankees(2.138)
27. Boyd, Detroit(2.136)
28. Turner, Washington(2.135)

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The first three projected to miss the cut:
29. Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134)
29. Edwards, Cubs(2.134)
29. Biagini, Toronto(2.134)


If Rea is not promoted at all by San Diego

1. Severino, Yankees(2.170)
2. Jankowski, San Digeo(2.169)
3. Plawecki, Mets(2.167)
4. Perez, Texas(2.166)
4. Hedges, San Diego(2.166)
6. Swihart, Boston(2.164)
6. Drury, Toronto(2.164)
8. Marte, Arizona(2.162)
9. Wolters, Colorado(2.161)
10. Goody, Cleveland(2.159)
10. Buxton, Minnesota(2.159)
12. Fulmer, Detroit(2.157)
12. Manaea, Oakland(2.157)
14. Guerra, Milwaukee(2.155)
15. Ramirez, Atlanta(2.153)
16. Kepler, Minnesota(2.152)
17. Conley, Miami(2.147)
18. Marte, Angels(2.146)
18. Dickerson, San Diego(2.146)
20. Rogers, Minnesota(2.145)
20. Davidson, White Sox(2.145)
22. Peraza, Cincinnati(2.141)
22. Butler, Texas(2.141)
24. Dull, Oakland(2.140)
25. Torreyes, Yankees(2.138)
26. Boyd, Detroit(2.136)
27. Turner, Washington(2.135)
28. Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134)
28. Edwards, Cubs(2.134)
28. Biagini, Toronto(2.134)

-------------------------------
The first three projected to miss the cut:
31. Schebler, Cincinnati(2.132)
32. Bush, Texas(2.131)
33. Miller, Washington(2.128)

Faces of Super Two, Part 22

UPDATE ON SEPTEMBER 9:  El Paso has been eliminated from the PCL play-offs.  Where will Colin Rea go next? Seattle to join the Padres?  Tulsa to join San Antonio?  Home?

UPDATE ON SEPTEMBER 9: San Diego's AA team, San Antonio has advanced in the Texas League play-offs.  If El Paso is eliminated San Antonio could be another place San Diego could send Rea to get some work without promoting him to the big leagues.

UPDATE ON SEPTEMBER 9:  Oakland has promoted Ryan Dull.  As noted, this transaction puts Dull in line to finish the year with 2.140 of service time, enough for a Super Two slot.

UPDATE ON SEPTEMBER 9:  Colin Rea and El Paso knocked off Fresno Saturday night to extend their series to a fifth game.  Game 5 is Sunday in Fresno.  A win extends El Paso's season(and delays Rea's potential call-up) at least another week.

NOTE:  Rea has spent more than half of the season(101 days) on either the Major League or Minor League Disabled List.  He has only appeared in 18 games, logging 75 1/3 innings pitched.

This is a notable weekend for at least five Faces of Super Two and their future earning potential.

Ryan Dull, P, Oakland.  Dull currently has two years and 118 days of MLB service time.  He is eligible to be promoted on Sunday.  If he is promoted and stays in the big leagues through September 30, he will end the year with 2.140 of service time.  That number would assure Dull a Super Two slot.

Colin Rea, P, San Diego.  Rea currently has two years and 139 days of career service time.  However, he only has 84 days of service time this season.  He needs two more days in the majors to qualify for Super Two status.

Rea is pitching for El Paso tonight in an elimination game in the Pacific Coast League play-offs.  If Rea can get to the big leagues, even just for two days after El Paso's play-off run ends, he will be in position to take a Super Two slot and the arbitration eligibility that goes with it.

THREE ON THE BUBBLE- Jacob Lindgren, P, Atlanta; Carl Edwards, P, Cubs; Joe Biagini, P, Blue Jays.

All three of these players are on pace to end the season with two years and 134 days of career service time.  Interestingly, their Super Two status is completely out of their control.

If Dull and Rea both get promoted and earn a Super Two slot, my projections show that Lindgren, Edwards, ang Biagini would end up tied for the first spot out of the Super Two picture.

If Dull or Rea(or both) don't get promoted and fail to take up a Super Two slot,  the trio would move up into the arbitration eligible category.

The Faces of Super Two are Brought to you by the Summer of Box Tops, II

The Faces of Super Two, Part 19

Update on Friday, September 7.  Rea and the El Paso Chihuahuas are in  the play-offs, but they could be eliminated as soon as tonight. Rea is scheduled to start Saturday's game if the play-off series is El Paso wins tonight's contest. Rea's promotion, or lack thereof, should follow soon after the El Paso season ends.

Evan Marshall has been removed from Cleveland's 40-man roster.  This transaction removes him from the Super Two picture.

Update on Thursday, August 30.  Dull is optioned back to AAA.  He now has 2.118 service time.  Unless there is an injury, he can't be promoted again until September 9.  A promotion on that date would put him in line to end the season with a service time tally of 2.140.  That number would put him a Super Two seat.

Update on Tuesday, August 28.  Dull is promoted by Oakland.  Assuming he stays up to the end of the season, a likelihood with September call-ups right around the corner, he is practically a lock for Super Two status.

September call-ups can begin in less than a week.  There are three players who could still jump into a Super Two slot (and bump someone of the bubble) if they are promoted soon enough.  The AAA regular season ends on September 3 this year.

Colin Rea, P, San Diego.  Due to injuries, Rea has not pitched in the majors since 2016.  However, he currently has two years and 139 days of career service time.  He is active with El Paso at the moment.
He needs at least two days of service time to reach the requirement of 86 service days this season.  If he can reach that threshold, he will gain a Super Two spot.

NOTE: El Paso is in line for the post-season, which could delay a promotion for Rea.

Ryan Dull, P, Oakland. Dull is currently at AAA Nashville with two years and 116 days of big league service time.  It looks like the cut-off for Super Two status will be around two years and 134 days of service time.  If Dull gets promoted as soon as the AAA regular season ends, he has a great chance to claim a Super Two spot.

Evan Marshall, P, Cleveland. Marshall, like Rea, has had some injury issues.  He spent some time in the big leagues this season(mostly on the disabled list).  At AAA Columbus, he currently holds two years and 107 days of service time.  He needs to get called up as soon as the minor league regular season ends if he is to have a chance at Super Two status. Even that might not do the trick for Marshall.

NOTE:  Columbus as a good chance at qualifying for the play-offs, which could delay a promotion for Marshall.

The Faces of Super Two are brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II

Non-Promotion of Buxton Could lead to Big Savings for Three Other Teams

Minnesota's decision to not promote Byron Buxton this September will likely lead to big savings for three other teams.  

The Big Picture:

1. The Twins don't promote Buxton. This causes Buxton, with two years and 159 days of service time to fall into a Super Two slot.

2. I was projecting 130 players to fall in the 2 years to 3 years range(without Buxton).  22% of this number(not including remainders) is 28.  With the addition of Buxton, there will be 131 players in the 2 to 3 year range.  However, 22% if 131 is still only 28-no additional Super Two slots.

3. If Colin Rea, Padres and Ryan Dull, Oakland get promoted this month, they will both end the season in line for a Super Two slot.  Importantly, they will each have more than 2.134 in service time.

4. The next result is that the three players with 2.134 of service time at season's end would be tied for 29th place in race for a Super Two slot. This standing would bump them off the bubble and out of an extra year of arbitration eligibility.

These three players are Carl Edwards, Cubs; Jacob Lindgren, Braves, and Joe Biagini, Blue Jays.

The Faces of Super Two, Part 21

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins will not be promoting  Buxton.  Buxton currently has two years and 159 days of service time.

As a result of this non-move Buxton will not reach three years of service time and will fall into the realm of the Super Twos.  With Buxton falling into a Super Two slot, three players could fall off the bottom end of the Super Two bubble: Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134), Edwards, Cubs(2.134) and Biagini, Toronto(2.134)

The Faces of Super Two are Brought to you by the Summer of Box Tops, II

September 1 Super Two Projection

Now that the expanded rosters of September have arrived, it is time for another Super Two projection.

It appears at the moment that 131 players will end the year on a 40-man roster with 1) 86 days of service time this season, 2) at least two years of career service time and 3) less than three years of career service time.  If this number holds true, 28 players(plus ties) will be granted Super Two arbitration status.

My projected Super Two class as September commences:

1. Severino, Yankees(2.170)
2. Jankowski, San Digeo(2.169)
3. Plawecki, Mets(2.167)
4. Perez, Texas(2.166)
4. Hedges, San Diego(2.166)
6. Swihart, Boston(2.164)
6. Drury, Toronto(2.164)
8. Marte, Arizona(2.162)
9. Wolters, Colorado(2.161)
10. Goody, Cleveland(2.159)
11. Fulmer, Detroit(2.157)
11. Manaea, Oakland(2.157)
13. Rea, San Diego(2.156)
14. Guerra, Milwaukee(2.155)
15. Ramirez, Atlanta(2.153)
16. Kepler, Minnesota(2.152)
17. Conley, Miami(2.147)
18. Marte, Angels(2.146)
18. Dickerson, San Diego(2.146)
20. Rogers, Minnesota(2.145)
20. Davidson, White Sox(2.145)
22. Peraza, Cincinnati(2.141)
22. Butler, Texas(2.141)
24. Torreyes, Yankees(2.138)
25. Boyd, Detroit(2.136)
26. Turner, Washington(2.135)
26. Dull, Oakland(2.135)
28. Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134)
28. Edwards, Cubs(2.134)
28. Biagini, Toronto(2.134)

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The first three projected to miss the cut:
31. Schebler, Cincinnati(2.132)
32. Bush, Texas(2.131)
33. Marshall, Cleveland(2.130)


 A few factors to keep an eye on in September:


Will These Guys Actually be Called Up?  
This projection is based on the assumption that a handful of players will be called up and gain three years of service time.  If any of these players don't get promoted, they would likely end the year in a Super Two slot, bumping someone off the bottom of the list.

Altherr, Phillies
Feliz, Pirates
Santana, Brewers
Buxton, Twins


How Soon Will These Guys Be Called Up?
Another factor that creates potential wiggle room in my projection is determining when a few other players will be called up.  A later call up could cause these players to fall out of the Super Two group. If any of these players ARE NOT called up, they would fall off of the Super Two list.

Rea, Padres
Dull, Athletics
Marshall, Indians-I project that Marshall will not be promoted soon enough to make it on the Super Two list, but I will update if that changes. If he is promoted on Tuesday, September 4, he could accrue enough time to join the tie for the last spot.  After that, it looks like he will miss out.

The Ties May Have It
As of this projection, there is a three-way tie for the last spot on the Super Two list.  Ties are included, so in fact, I am projecting 30 players to be included of 28.  In this case, including ties certainly works to the players' benefit.