September 1 Super Two Projection

Now that the expanded rosters of September have arrived, it is time for another Super Two projection.

It appears at the moment that 131 players will end the year on a 40-man roster with 1) 86 days of service time this season, 2) at least two years of career service time and 3) less than three years of career service time.  If this number holds true, 28 players(plus ties) will be granted Super Two arbitration status.

My projected Super Two class as September commences:

1. Severino, Yankees(2.170)
2. Jankowski, San Digeo(2.169)
3. Plawecki, Mets(2.167)
4. Perez, Texas(2.166)
4. Hedges, San Diego(2.166)
6. Swihart, Boston(2.164)
6. Drury, Toronto(2.164)
8. Marte, Arizona(2.162)
9. Wolters, Colorado(2.161)
10. Goody, Cleveland(2.159)
11. Fulmer, Detroit(2.157)
11. Manaea, Oakland(2.157)
13. Rea, San Diego(2.156)
14. Guerra, Milwaukee(2.155)
15. Ramirez, Atlanta(2.153)
16. Kepler, Minnesota(2.152)
17. Conley, Miami(2.147)
18. Marte, Angels(2.146)
18. Dickerson, San Diego(2.146)
20. Rogers, Minnesota(2.145)
20. Davidson, White Sox(2.145)
22. Peraza, Cincinnati(2.141)
22. Butler, Texas(2.141)
24. Torreyes, Yankees(2.138)
25. Boyd, Detroit(2.136)
26. Turner, Washington(2.135)
26. Dull, Oakland(2.135)
28. Lindgren, Atlanta(2.134)
28. Edwards, Cubs(2.134)
28. Biagini, Toronto(2.134)

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The first three projected to miss the cut:
31. Schebler, Cincinnati(2.132)
32. Bush, Texas(2.131)
33. Marshall, Cleveland(2.130)


 A few factors to keep an eye on in September:


Will These Guys Actually be Called Up?  
This projection is based on the assumption that a handful of players will be called up and gain three years of service time.  If any of these players don't get promoted, they would likely end the year in a Super Two slot, bumping someone off the bottom of the list.

Altherr, Phillies
Feliz, Pirates
Santana, Brewers
Buxton, Twins


How Soon Will These Guys Be Called Up?
Another factor that creates potential wiggle room in my projection is determining when a few other players will be called up.  A later call up could cause these players to fall out of the Super Two group. If any of these players ARE NOT called up, they would fall off of the Super Two list.

Rea, Padres
Dull, Athletics
Marshall, Indians-I project that Marshall will not be promoted soon enough to make it on the Super Two list, but I will update if that changes. If he is promoted on Tuesday, September 4, he could accrue enough time to join the tie for the last spot.  After that, it looks like he will miss out.

The Ties May Have It
As of this projection, there is a three-way tie for the last spot on the Super Two list.  Ties are included, so in fact, I am projecting 30 players to be included of 28.  In this case, including ties certainly works to the players' benefit.