Now that the All Star Break has arrived, the Super Two picture is starting to take shape. One person of interest who has surfaced in the race is Milwaukee reliever Josh Hader.
Hader is on pace to end the season with 2 years and 115 days of big league service time. Historically, that amount of service time has landed outside of the Super Two qualification range. However, as I have tracked the Super Two picture to this point in the 2019 season, it appears that Hader's number puts him squarely on the bubble of that lucrative group.
There are two factors which effect Hader's chances of being a Super Two. Today, we will look at the first of those two factors.
Factor #1: How many players with more service time than Hader qualify for Super Two status?
Simply put, more players in this category equals less slots for Hader (and other bubble dwellers) to jump into.
Grant Dayton, Atlanta. (2 years, 95 days, career through July 8) (21 days in 2019).
Two scenarios for Dayton will be beneficial to Hader's chances.
1. Dayton stays in the big leagues for at least 77 more days this season. That would give him a full three years and move him out of the Super Two picture entirely.
2. Dayton stays in the big leagues for less than 64 days. In this case, Dayton would not have at least 86 days of service time this season, and he would fall from the Super Two picture.
Brian Schlitter, Oakland. (2 years, 69 days) (16 days).
Schlitter poses a problem for Hader and other bubble dwellers if he stays in the big leagues for at least 70 more days. That number would give Schlitter the necessary 86 days this season and a career total of 2 years and 139 days. This would certainly give him a Super Two spot.
Pat Valaika, Colorado. (2 years, 43 days) (46 days).
Where Valaika spends the remainder of the season could help Hader's chances or it could hurt them.
Valaika helps Hader the most if:
Valaika spends 40-72 days in the big leagues. In this case, Valaika reaches 86 days for the season and at most ends tied with Hader in service time at the end of the season. This means Valaika is included in the Super Two picture, but if he and Hader ARE tied at 2.115, they would share a SUPER TWO spot.
Valaika hurts Hader if:
Valaika spends more than 72 days in the big leagues. In this case, Valaika is ahead of Hader in service time and takes a bubble spot from him.
Valaika hurts and helps Hader if:
Valaika spends less than 40 days in the big leagues. In this case, Valaika doesn't reach 86 days of service time for this season. The result of this event is that one less player will be used to calculate (multiply by 22%) the number of Super Two spots.
He won't take a spot from Hader in this case, but there could potentially be one less Super Two spot to be had due to Valaika's absence.
Next Up: Part II, How many players with less service time than Hader are in the Super Two group?
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