With 30 days left in the season, I still project 2.112 as the Super Two cut-off.
A few September call-ups (or lack thereof) could affect this picture:
For my projection, I assume that Daniel Mengden AND/OR Charlie Tilson will be promoted. If neither is promoted, there will likely be one less Super Two slot.
I also assumed that Johan Camargo and Daniel Robertson will both be promoted. If one is not promoted, it will open up a Super Two slot. If neither is promoted, two slots will become available.
Andrew Knapp, Phillies (2.171- projected service time at season's end)
Wandy Peralta, Reds (2.167)
Jessie Biddle, Rangers (2.166)
Hunter Renfroe, Padres (2.165)
David Hale, Yankees (2.163)
David Dahl, Rockies (2.162)
Brent Suter, Brewers (2.161)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (2.160)
Tyler Glasnow, Rays (2.158)
Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (2.153)
Keynan Middleton, Angels (2.150)
Kyle Freeland, Rockies (2.143)
Noe Ramirez, Angels (2.139)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs (2.139)
Johan Camargo, Braves (2.137)
Daniel Roberston, Rays (2.137)
Chris Martin, Braves (2.133)
Luis Cessa, Yankees (2.131)
Dinelson Lamet, Padres (2.130)
Gio Urshela, Yankees (2.127)
Paul DeJong, Cardinals (2.127)
JaCoby Jones, Tigers (2.125)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees (2.124)
A.J. Cole, Indians (2.124)
Josh Hader, Brewers (2.115)
Jarlin Garcia, Marlins (2.114)
Tyler Olson, Indians (2.114)
Julio Urias, Dodgers (2.114)
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (2.112)
FIRST TWO PLAYERS OFF OF THE BUBBLE:
Matt Chapman, Athletics (2.109)
Colin Moran, Pirates (2.107)
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.23
Charlie Tilson, White Sox and Daniel Mengden, Oakland.
Both Tilson and Mengden are currently in the minors. However, they will have substantial effect on the Super Two picture if they are promoted in September.
Neither Tilson (2.020) nor Mengden(2.018) has enough career service time, but if either one reaches the 86 day of service time threshold for this season, the Super Class could be increased.
Tilson has 74 days of service time this season. Mengden has 62 days. Reaching the 86 day threshold adds another player to the pool used to determine the 22% who earn Super Two slots.
Both Tilson and Mengden are currently in the minors. However, they will have substantial effect on the Super Two picture if they are promoted in September.
Neither Tilson (2.020) nor Mengden(2.018) has enough career service time, but if either one reaches the 86 day of service time threshold for this season, the Super Class could be increased.
Tilson has 74 days of service time this season. Mengden has 62 days. Reaching the 86 day threshold adds another player to the pool used to determine the 22% who earn Super Two slots.
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.22
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Texas.
Kiner-Falefa was demoted by the Rangers either last Tuesday or last Thursday. Either way, it is now mathematically impossible for him to reach two full years of service time by the end of this season.
Kiner-Falefa's demotion could have a significant impact on the Super Two picture. According to my currently projections, he was in line to be the 132 player to qualify for the pool of players used to determine the 22% who qualify for Super Two status.
Doing the math:
If there are 132 qualifiers, there are 29 Super Two positions.
If there are 131 qualifiers, there are only 28 Super Two positions.
In essence, Kiner-Falefa's demotion could well mean that one player gets bumped from the Super Two bubble.
The most likely candidate is Arizona pitcher Luke Weaver.
Kiner-Falefa was demoted by the Rangers either last Tuesday or last Thursday. Either way, it is now mathematically impossible for him to reach two full years of service time by the end of this season.
Kiner-Falefa's demotion could have a significant impact on the Super Two picture. According to my currently projections, he was in line to be the 132 player to qualify for the pool of players used to determine the 22% who qualify for Super Two status.
Doing the math:
If there are 132 qualifiers, there are 29 Super Two positions.
If there are 131 qualifiers, there are only 28 Super Two positions.
In essence, Kiner-Falefa's demotion could well mean that one player gets bumped from the Super Two bubble.
The most likely candidate is Arizona pitcher Luke Weaver.
Sunday, August 25, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.21
Johan Camargo, Atlanta(2.106) and Daniel Roberton, Tampa Bay(2.104).
Both of these players spent a majority of the season accruing big league service time, although a substantial amount of that time they were injured. However, with a week remaining until September call-ups become a reality, Camargo and Robertson are both in the minors.
What happens to them in September will significantly affect the Super Two bubble.
Option A: Both Camargo and Robertson are promoted in September and close out the season accruing big league service time.
In this scenario, Camargo and Robertson each earn a Super Two spot, and the Super Two Bubble looks like this:
(29 spots available)
#25- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#26tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#26tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#26tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#29- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
First off the bubble
Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
Option B: One of the two is promoted and the other is not.
In this scenario, the promoted player earns a Super Two spot, and the Super Two bubble looks like this:
(29 spots available)
#24- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#25tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#25tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#25tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#28- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
#29- Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
First off the bubble
Newcomb, Atlanta(2.108)
Brasier, Bostoan(2.108)
Option C: Neither Camargo nor Robertson is promoted.
Neither one will be a Super Two and the bubble will look like this:
(29 spots avialable)
#23- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#24tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#24tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#24tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#27- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
#28- Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
#29tie- Newcomb, Atlanta(2.108)
#29tie- Brasier, Boston(2.108)
First off the bubble
Moran, Pittsburgh(2.107)
Both of these players spent a majority of the season accruing big league service time, although a substantial amount of that time they were injured. However, with a week remaining until September call-ups become a reality, Camargo and Robertson are both in the minors.
What happens to them in September will significantly affect the Super Two bubble.
Option A: Both Camargo and Robertson are promoted in September and close out the season accruing big league service time.
In this scenario, Camargo and Robertson each earn a Super Two spot, and the Super Two Bubble looks like this:
(29 spots available)
#25- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#26tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#26tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#26tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#29- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
First off the bubble
Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
Option B: One of the two is promoted and the other is not.
In this scenario, the promoted player earns a Super Two spot, and the Super Two bubble looks like this:
(29 spots available)
#24- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#25tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#25tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#25tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#28- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
#29- Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
First off the bubble
Newcomb, Atlanta(2.108)
Brasier, Bostoan(2.108)
Option C: Neither Camargo nor Robertson is promoted.
Neither one will be a Super Two and the bubble will look like this:
(29 spots avialable)
#23- Hader, Milwaukee (2.115)
#24tie- Olson, Cleveland (2.114)
#24tie- Garcia, Miami(2.114)
#24tie- Urias, Dodgers(2.114)
#27- Weaver, Arizona(2.112)
#28- Chapman, Oakland(2.109)
#29tie- Newcomb, Atlanta(2.108)
#29tie- Brasier, Boston(2.108)
First off the bubble
Moran, Pittsburgh(2.107)
Saturday, August 24, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.20
Wandy Peralta, Cincinnati.
After Peralta recovered from an injury three weeks ago, the Reds optioned him to AAA. Peralta currently has a career total of 2 years and 138 days of service time.
If Peralta had not been demoted, he was on course to accrue the three years of service time needed to earn arbitration eligibility without Super Two status. However, now unless he is promoted within the next four days, Peralta is headed for a Super Two spot.
If this plays out, someone will be bumped off of the Super Two bubble.
The only other way this bump would be avoided is if Cincinnati decides to outright Peralta off of their 40-man roster before season's end.
After Peralta recovered from an injury three weeks ago, the Reds optioned him to AAA. Peralta currently has a career total of 2 years and 138 days of service time.
If Peralta had not been demoted, he was on course to accrue the three years of service time needed to earn arbitration eligibility without Super Two status. However, now unless he is promoted within the next four days, Peralta is headed for a Super Two spot.
If this plays out, someone will be bumped off of the Super Two bubble.
The only other way this bump would be avoided is if Cincinnati decides to outright Peralta off of their 40-man roster before season's end.
Sunday, August 18, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.19
Julio Urias, Dodgers.
Urias started a 20-game suspension on Saturday. The five games(seven days) he spent on administrative leave will count towards his suspension. According to my math, Urias will need to serve 15 games (16 days) to complete his sentence.
Based on this information, Urias will finish the season with 2 years and 114 days of service time. This number will put him right on the bubble.of the Super Two class.
NOTE: I am working on the assumption that Urias' time on administrative leave did not count towards his service time total. Of course, my calculations will be off if this assumption is faulty.
Urias started a 20-game suspension on Saturday. The five games(seven days) he spent on administrative leave will count towards his suspension. According to my math, Urias will need to serve 15 games (16 days) to complete his sentence.
Based on this information, Urias will finish the season with 2 years and 114 days of service time. This number will put him right on the bubble.of the Super Two class.
NOTE: I am working on the assumption that Urias' time on administrative leave did not count towards his service time total. Of course, my calculations will be off if this assumption is faulty.
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.18
Ryan Brasier, Boston.
Boston promoted Brasier back to the major leagues on Saturday. Brasier spent 32 days in the minors.
After spending a month in the minors, the highest career service time Brasier could end this season with is 2 years and 108 days. This number would put Braiser within viewing distance of the Super Two class, but, after his AAA stint, he is almost certain to be excluded from that group.
Boston promoted Brasier back to the major leagues on Saturday. Brasier spent 32 days in the minors.
After spending a month in the minors, the highest career service time Brasier could end this season with is 2 years and 108 days. This number would put Braiser within viewing distance of the Super Two class, but, after his AAA stint, he is almost certain to be excluded from that group.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.17
Johan Camargo, Atlanta.
Camargo was optioned to AAA by Atlanta on Friday. He had spent the entire season on the big league roster.
Prior to his demotion, I was projecting Camargo to earn a Super Two spot.
If Camargo is recalled when rosters expand on September 1, he would end the season with 2 years and 135 days of service time. This number would land him a Super Two slot.
If Camargo is not recalled, he will in all likelihood fall off of the Super Two bubble.
Camargo was optioned to AAA by Atlanta on Friday. He had spent the entire season on the big league roster.
Prior to his demotion, I was projecting Camargo to earn a Super Two spot.
If Camargo is recalled when rosters expand on September 1, he would end the season with 2 years and 135 days of service time. This number would land him a Super Two slot.
If Camargo is not recalled, he will in all likelihood fall off of the Super Two bubble.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.16
Tyler Austin, Milwaukee
Does Milwaukee's signing of Tyler Austin pose a threat to Josh Hader's Super Two chances.
Click here to see my Super Two projection with 50 days to go in the season.
At the moment, Hader is 25th or 26th out of 28 or 29 Super Two spots. Today, the Brewers signed Tyler Austin to a minor league contract.
Austin has 134 days of service time this season and 2.121 of career service time. If he makes it onto the Brewers' 40-man roster and stays on it until the end of the season, he is in position to claim a Super Two spot.
UPDATE: Maybe Hader should be nervous. According to this tweet, the Brewers are looking at Jung Ho Kang.
If Austin claims a spot, it will bump someone off of the bubble. It appears that Hader is high enough in the rankings to avoid such a bump. However, if the Brewers(or some other team) were to sign Jung Ho Kang as well, Hader might start worrying.
The Brewers picking up of Tyler Austin (and considering picking up of Kang) reminds me of 2017 when I wondered if Houston picked up Jumbo Diaz with an eye on manipulating the BACK END of the Super Two process.
Kang is currently a free agent with 129 days this season and 2.132 of career time. Like Austin, Kang would claim a Super Two spot if he ends the season on a 40-man roster.
Does Milwaukee's signing of Tyler Austin pose a threat to Josh Hader's Super Two chances.
Click here to see my Super Two projection with 50 days to go in the season.
At the moment, Hader is 25th or 26th out of 28 or 29 Super Two spots. Today, the Brewers signed Tyler Austin to a minor league contract.
Austin has 134 days of service time this season and 2.121 of career service time. If he makes it onto the Brewers' 40-man roster and stays on it until the end of the season, he is in position to claim a Super Two spot.
UPDATE: Maybe Hader should be nervous. According to this tweet, the Brewers are looking at Jung Ho Kang.
#Brewers have NOT signed INF Jung Ho Kang to a minor-league deal. At least, not yet. He is with @missionsmilb working out with hopes of getting deal done but GM David Stearns said there are things to settle. So, we shall see.— Tom (@Haudricourt) August 16, 2019
If Austin claims a spot, it will bump someone off of the bubble. It appears that Hader is high enough in the rankings to avoid such a bump. However, if the Brewers(or some other team) were to sign Jung Ho Kang as well, Hader might start worrying.
The Brewers picking up of Tyler Austin (and considering picking up of Kang) reminds me of 2017 when I wondered if Houston picked up Jumbo Diaz with an eye on manipulating the BACK END of the Super Two process.
Kang is currently a free agent with 129 days this season and 2.132 of career time. Like Austin, Kang would claim a Super Two spot if he ends the season on a 40-man roster.
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Super Two Projection with 50 Days to Go
With 50 days left in the season, I am still projecting a Super Two class of 29 players. The cut-off point projects at 2 years and 112 days of Major League service time.
Andrew Knapp, Phillies (2.171- projected service time at season's end)
Wandy Peralta, Reds (2.167)
Jessie Biddle, Rangers (2.166)
Hunter Renfroe, Padres (2.165)
David Hale, Yankees (2.163)
David Dahl, Rockies (2.162)
Brent Suter, Brewers (2.161)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (2.160)
Tyler Glasnow, Rays (2.158)
Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (2.153)
Keynan Middleton, Angels (2.150)
Kyle Freeland, Rockies (2.143)
Noe Ramirez, Angels (2.139)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs (2.139)
Johan Camargo, Braves (2.137)
Daniel Roberston, Rays (2.137)
Chris Martin, Braves (2.133)
Luis Cessa, Yankees (2.131)
Dinelson Lamet, Padres (2.130)
Gio Urshela, Yankees (2.127)
Paul DeJong, Cardinals (2.127)
JaCoby Jones, Tigers (2.125)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees (2.124)
A.J. Cole, Indians (2.124)
Julio Urias, Dodgers (2.122)
Josh Hader, Brewers (2.115)
Jarlin Garcia, Marlins (2.114)
Tyler Olson, Indians (2.114)
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (2.112)
FIRST TWO PLAYERS OFF OF THE BUBBLE:
Matt Chapman, Athletics (2.109)
Colin Moran, Pirates (2.107)
Andrew Knapp, Phillies (2.171- projected service time at season's end)
Wandy Peralta, Reds (2.167)
Jessie Biddle, Rangers (2.166)
Hunter Renfroe, Padres (2.165)
David Hale, Yankees (2.163)
David Dahl, Rockies (2.162)
Brent Suter, Brewers (2.161)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (2.160)
Tyler Glasnow, Rays (2.158)
Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (2.153)
Keynan Middleton, Angels (2.150)
Kyle Freeland, Rockies (2.143)
Noe Ramirez, Angels (2.139)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs (2.139)
Johan Camargo, Braves (2.137)
Daniel Roberston, Rays (2.137)
Chris Martin, Braves (2.133)
Luis Cessa, Yankees (2.131)
Dinelson Lamet, Padres (2.130)
Gio Urshela, Yankees (2.127)
Paul DeJong, Cardinals (2.127)
JaCoby Jones, Tigers (2.125)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees (2.124)
A.J. Cole, Indians (2.124)
Julio Urias, Dodgers (2.122)
Josh Hader, Brewers (2.115)
Jarlin Garcia, Marlins (2.114)
Tyler Olson, Indians (2.114)
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (2.112)
FIRST TWO PLAYERS OFF OF THE BUBBLE:
Matt Chapman, Athletics (2.109)
Colin Moran, Pirates (2.107)
Saturday, August 10, 2019
2019 Faces of Super Two- Volume 2.15
Wandy Peralta, Cincinnati.
The Reds optioned Peralta to AAA about a week ago. At this time, Peralta has two years and 138 days of service time. He could still make it back to the big leagues and pick up the 34 days needed to reach three years of service time, and thus, be arbitration eligible.
However, if he doesn't accrue at least 34 days this and is able to stay on the Reds' 40-man roster until season's end, Peralta will almost certainly earn a Super Two slot with his current service time. If this were to happen, one player would be bumped off the Super Two bubble.
The Reds optioned Peralta to AAA about a week ago. At this time, Peralta has two years and 138 days of service time. He could still make it back to the big leagues and pick up the 34 days needed to reach three years of service time, and thus, be arbitration eligible.
However, if he doesn't accrue at least 34 days this and is able to stay on the Reds' 40-man roster until season's end, Peralta will almost certainly earn a Super Two slot with his current service time. If this were to happen, one player would be bumped off the Super Two bubble.
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