Friday, June 29, 2018

Skeeters' Weekend Games Have Play-off Implications

The Sugar Land Skeeters and Lancaster Barnstormers play three games this weekend at Constellation Field which will go a long way towards determining the first half champion of the Atlantic League's Freedom Division.  Sugar Land currently leads Lancaster by one-half game with less than a week remaining in the first half.

The two clubs face off in Fort Bend County on Friday(7:05), Saturday(6:05) and Sunday(6:05).  These are the final three games of a seven-game series.  The Skeeters won three of the first four games of the series to retake the lead in the division.

The winner of the first half championship clinches one of four spots in the post-season.

CURRENT STANDINGS:
Sugar Land- 36-21- ------
Lancaster- 35-21-   1/2


The Skeeters stream their home games live on their YouTube channel.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

The Faces of Super Two, Part 4

As the 13th week of the season draws to a close, two members of the Milwaukee organization are the faces of Super Two.

Keon Broxton, OF, Milwaukee. Broxton was promoted for the first time this season on Tuesday.  Before the season began, Broxton had a chance to be a Super Two himself.  He began the year with one year and 137 days of service time.

However, after spending almost half the year in AAA, Broxton might not even end the 2018 season with two full years of service time.

Domingo Santana, OF, Milwaukee.  Santana was demoted on Saturday with two years and 165 days of service time.  Barring something really bizarre, he is still almost certain to pass three years of service time before the end of the season.

The Faces of Super Two are brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II

Sunday, June 24, 2018

The Faces of Super Two, Part 3

With 99 days remaining in the seasons, here's a look at two more of The Faces of Super Two:

Rob Refsynder, OF, Tampa Bay.  Refsnyder had been on a Major League roster the entire season until he was outrighted by the Rays Friday, removing him from the 40-man roster.

Refsnyder currently has two years and 20 days of service time.  This number would not give a chance to qualify for Super Two status, even if he had stayed on a big league roster.  However, if doesn't find his way back on a 40-man roster before season's end, the result is one less player in the pool to determine the number of Super Two qualifiers.

This is bad news from the last player on the Super Two bubble.

Pat Valaika, 1B, Colorado. Valaika was promoted by Colorado on Saturday.  This was his second promotion of the 2018 season.

Valaika currently has one year and 75 days of service time.  If he can stay in the big leagues for the remainder of the season, he will just barely pass the two year service time threshold.

This will not qualify him for Super Two status; however, it would add a name to the pool used to calculate the number of Super Two qualifiers.

This would be good news for the last player on the Super Two bubble.

The Faces of Super Two are brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

The Faces of Super Two, Part 2

UPDATE on June 21:  Kelby Tomlinson, mentioned below, only spent two days in the Majors.  He was optioned back to AAA on Thursday.

This update comes through Tuesday, June 19 with 103 service days remaining in the season.  There are three faces for your consideration today.

Oliver Drake, P, Angels organization.  On Tuesday, Drake was outrighted to AAA by the Angels.  This transaction removed Drake from the 40-man roster.

Drake being outrighted is significant as it relates to the Super Two picture because Drake currently  has two years and four days of service time.  As it stands now, with Drake not on a 40-man roster, one less player will be in the pool used to determine the number of Super Two eligibles. If Drake could get back on a 40-man roster and remain until the end of the season, one player who would otherwise be stuck on the Super Two bubble could move up into Super Two status.

Kelby Tomlinson, IF, Giants. Tomlinson was promoted by the Giants on Monday after spending 17 days in the minor leagues.  Tomlinson started the season with two years and one day of service time, so he now has two years and 67 days.

If he can make this call-up stick, Tomlinson will end the season with two years and 170 days.  This would assure him of Super Two status.  If he is optioned again by the Giants, closer observation is mertited.

Evan Marshall, P, Indians. Marshall has two years and 58 service days through Tuesday.  On Tuesday, the Indians placed him on the Disabled List.  Given that Marshall didn't start the year on a big league roster and that he has already been optioned twice, a long stay on the DL could help Marshall in terms of Super Two status.

It is possible that Marshall could have a short stay on the DL, come back pitch well and stay in big leagues.  This would allow him to accrue the needed service time for Super Two status.  However, his performance for Cleveland thus far, indicates more minor league time is in his future when gets healthy.

On the other hand, Marshall does continue to accrue service time while disabled.  If he is disabled for two and one-half months, it is possible he could accrue enough service time to jump onto the Super Two list.  75 days of service time (healthy or on the DL) would give Marshall two years and 133 days heading into the off-season.

The Faces of Super Two are brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II

Monday, June 18, 2018

The Faces of Super Two

With 15 weeks left in the MLB season, here's a look at a few of the players who are factors in the race for Super Two status.

Luis Severino, P, Yankees.  Severino is at the top of a group of players who are locks.  These players started the season with less than two years and at least one year and 140 days of service time. For the most part, they have been on a big league roster continuously since opening day of this season.  Severino is on track to finish 2018 with two years and 170 days of service time.

Adam Conley, P, Marlins. Conley started the season with two years and 11 days of MLB service time. However, he also started the season in the minor leagues.  His chance of earning automatic arbitration by accruing three years of service time by season's end was gone by the time Miami promoted him in mid-May. 

Still, if Conley stays in the big leagues continuously through the end of this season, he would hit the off-season with two years and 147 days of service time.  That number would almost certainly gain Conley the extra year of arbitration eligibility that Super Two status brings.

Tyler Austin, 1B, Yankees. Austin is currently in the minor leagues with one year and 107 days of service time. (through Sunday, June 17).  No matter what happens, he cannot achieve Super Two status.  However, as a member of a 40-man roster, his status can still have a bearing on the process.

If Austin is able to get back to the big leagues and accrue 75 more service days(there are 105 days left in the season), he would have two years of service time.  An increase in the number of players with at least two years and less than three years of service time directly affects the number of Super Two slots.  NOTE: 22% of the players in this category earn said Super Two status.

Players on the Super Two bubble would benefit from more players accruing at least two years of status by season's end.

The Faces of Super Two is brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Super Two Arbitration Worksheet

The Super Two cut-off date in MLB is not set in stone.  The amount of service time needed to qualify for Super Two arbitration status has varied substantially over the last nine years.

2009- 2 years, 139 days
2010- 2 years, 122 days
2011- 2 years, 146 days
2012: 2 years, 140 days
2013: 2 years, 122 days
2014: 2 years, 133 days
2015: 2 years, 130 days
2016: 2 years, 131 days
2017: 2 years, 123 days

This is an average of  2 years, 131.8 days

Data found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Unpaid promotional aside: One of my favorite events of the year, Empty Bowls Houston, is scheduled for May 19.  You can read more about Empty Bowls, which supports the work of the Houston Food Bank, here.

If you are speculating as to when a team wishing to avoid future Super Two status may call up a particular prospect, here is some data you may find useful.

For clarification, SUPER TWO status(i.e., an extra year of arbitration eligibility) is granted to the top 22 percent(in terms of service time accrued) of those players who have more than two years and less than three years of service time at the end of a given season.  In addition, a SUPER TWO candidate must have been on an active Major League roster for at least 86 days in the most recent season.

For example, Brad Peacock ended the 2016 season with 2 years and 165 days of service time, enough to qualify him as a SUPER TWO.  However, he spent fewer thn 86 days in the big leagues in 2016, so he was not a SUPER TWO.

All of the following projections are based on a scenario in which a prospect is promoted on the given day in 2018 and then remains in the Major Leagues continuously through the end of the 2020 season.

Player promoted on- April 29
Service Time accrued by end of 2020- 2 years, 155 days

Player promoted on- May 10
Service Time accrued by end of 2020- 2 years, 144 days

Player Promoted on - May 19(Empty Bowls Houston)
Service Time accrued by end of 2020- 2 years, 135 days

Player Promoted on- May 31
Service Time accrued by end of 2020-  2 years, 123 days

Player Promoted on- June 14
Service Time accrued by end of 2020- 2 years, 109 days

Saturday, June 9, 2018

Skeeters Appreciate Teachers Next Thursday


The Sugar Land Skeeters are appreciating local teachers next Thursday (June 14) with free tickets to that night's game.  This is at least the third year the Atlantic League club has hosted this promotion.

Teachers do need to show their current ID at the box office to receive two free tickets to the contest, which is scheduled for 7:05 pm.  In addition, educators can buy additional reserved for a discounted price of $11.

This post brought to you by Summer of Box Tops II, The Next Chapter.