Why is the Super Two Cut-Off Going to be So Low?

As I projected 10 days ago, this year's Super Two cut-off mark (2.114) will be much lower than it has been in the last decade.  Since 2009, the previous cut-off mark is (2.122). 

Throughout the 2019 season, the numbers were trending towards a lower number.  However, three significant demotions contributed to an even larger drop-off in the height of the Super Two threshold.


Dylan Covey, White Sox.  

At the season's mid-point, Covey was injured but he was a strong Super Two contender if he could get back onto the big league roster and stick.  However, Covey spent 32 days in the minors during the season's second half. 

He is on course to end the season with only 2 years and 93 days of service time.  He drops off the bubble and the cut-off number drops as well.

Antonio Senzatela, Colorado.

By the season's mid-point, who was injured early in the season, was recovered and on the Rockies roster. He was tracking strongly for a Super Two slot.  However, in July/August, Senzatela spent 35 days in AAA.

As a result of the brief demotion, he will end the season with only 2.105 of career service time.  He is off the bubble, and the number drops.

Ryan Brasier, Boston.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but Brasier was in essentially the same position as Cover and Senzatela (Super Two-wise) in mid-July. 

Brasier spent 32 days in the AAA after the All-Star break and fell off the bubble as well. He projects to end the season with 2.108 in service time.

What Effect Did These Moves Have?

Based on the service time counts that I have on record, if these three players had stayed up in the big leagues instead of being demoted for 30-plus days, the effect on the Super Two picture would have been large.

Rather than a cut-off mark of 2.114, the cut-off mark would be projecting at 2.124.

Of course, in this scenario the three players mentioned above would be projecting to be Super Twos and four players (four  rather than three due to ties) would be heading for a less-lucrative spot out of the Super Two picutre:  Josh Hader, Jarlin Garcia, Tyler Olson, and Julio Urias.