Monday, July 6, 2020

The Effect of Voting for a Third Party Candidate

In the 2016 presidential election, the races in 10 states were close enough that a case can be made that a change in the selections of the third party voters could have altered the winner of those states' electoral votes.  Four of these elections were in states that were won by Hilary Clinton. Six were in states (or portions of states) that were claimed by Donald Trump.  The 10 states accounted for 116 electoral votes out of 538 total.

Following is a breakdown of the races mentioned above.  The data provided includes number of electoral votes for a given state (or portions of states), percentage of votes received by winner, percentage of votes received by second place finisher, cumulative percentage of votes received by Gary Johnson(Libertarian), Jill Stein(Green), and Evan McMullin(Independent).


States won by Trump

Arizona, 11 electoral votes, 48.67%,  45.13%,  6.14%

Florida, 29 electoral votes, 49.02%, 47.82%, 2.88%

Michigan, 16 electoral votes, 47.50%, 47.27%,  4.83%

Nebraska(District 2), 1 electoral vote, 47.16%, 44.92%, 5.69%

Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes, 48.18%, 47.46%, 3.30%

Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes, 47.22%, 46.45%, 5.02%

States won by Clinton

Colorado, 9 electoral votes, 48.16%, 43.25%, 7.60%

Minnesota, 10 electoral votes, 46.44%, 44.92%, 6.90%

Nevada, 6 electoral votes, 47.50%, 45.98%, 3.29%

New Hampshire, 4 electoral votes, 46.98%, 46.61%, 5.17%

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